Why China is poised to manufacture the world's safest cars

While European and Japanese auto manufacturers have historically done well in getting good European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP) safety ratings, a shift is starting to take place with the threat coming from an unexpected source.

Chinese vehicles, which have previously done poorly on crash safety tests, could very well top the ratings in the years to come. In fact, the grades of vehicles manufactured in China have seen steady improvements lately, according to EuroNCAP's rating.

It would, therefore, not be outrageous to predict that Chinese cars will take the lead by 2026. This can, at least partly, be attributed to recent and upcoming updates to the EuroNCAP test protocols and the deployment of V2X (vehicle-to-everything) technology by Chinese automakers.

VW likely to benefit this year

Among the 2023 test protocol changes, local hazard warnings will be rewarded with up to 10 safety assist points. These include warnings for traffic jams, construction zones, accidents ahead, stopped vehicles on the hard shoulder, and emergency vehicles.

While any communication method for these alerts can be used, those using V2X direct communication solutions can be awarded maximum points. Furthermore, the cellular non-direct communication solution is part of a “connectivity package” offered by some automakers as a paid subscription.

Road operators worldwide are already recognizing the contribution of V2X to improving road safety. The most recent example the V2X deployment on the autobahn in Germany, where officials hope the move will save lives on the country's roads.

Although the benefits of V2X are known, Volkswagen remains the only European manufacturer shipping vehicles with V2X as a standard option. This will likely help models such as the ID3, ID4, ID5, and ID Buzz start climbing the ladder of the upcoming safety assist table.

Change looms in 2026

EuroNCAP announced that the introduction of V2X safety grading in its tests will take effect in 2026.

Chinese automakers have already been launching vehicles with built-in V2X. They have done so in preparation for a change in the safety grading by China NCAP in 2025.

These Chinese cars, which are destined for export to Europe, the U.S. and other markets, will contain the latest safety technology, which will invariably help them excel in the 2026 EuroNCAP tests.

Penalty for procrastination

To get a top EuroNCAP rating of 5stars, V2X technology is expected to be essential only in 2029. As a result, some European manufacturers are considering delaying their V2X deployment plans.

The complexity of the V2X EuroNCAP 2029 test will surge. Automakers that lack prior V2X deployment experience might struggle to handle the leap. Whereas automaker with several years of deployment experience will be well-positioned to pass the tests.

What this means is that the safety grading of Chinese cars will see a significant jump in 2026, potentially resulting in these vehicles topping the EuroNCAP ratings for the first time. That lead isn't expected to disappear in 2029 due to the gained experience in V2X deployment.

If Europe's top automakers want to avoid losing the prestige associated with receiving high EuroNCAP ratings, they must prioritize V2X technology instead of procrastinating.