As vehicle prices soar, will the humble sedan make a comeback?

It might be a mirage caused by inventory shortages, a dead cat bounce or a sign that waning affordability is beginning to change consumer behavior, but cars have done something they haven't done in years.

They have held — and even begun to win back — share in a U.S. market dominated by more-profitable light trucks.

Sedan, coupe, convertible, hatchback, sports car and performance car nameplates, which have been dropped from a number of brands' lineups over the last several years in favor of crossovers, pickups and SUVs, represented 21.4 percent of the 3.6 million new vehicles sold in the U.S. during the first quarter, according to the Automotive News Research & Data Center. That's up from the car's quarterly nadir of 19.6 percent at the end of 2021.

Small gains, certainly, but noteworthy because car share has been steadily retreating in the U.S. since 2002 when light trucks first outsold cars. The pace quickened considerably starting in the middle of the last decade when the Detroit 3 began exiting car segments.

With industrywide average vehicle transaction prices hovering around $45,000 and predicted by Toyota Motor North America to reach $50,000 this year, has the U.S. market finally found the car floor? Or was the latest quarter an anomaly?

"It seems like we're approaching some kind of natural boundary, where SUVs [and crossovers] are about 60 percent of the market, and pickups and vans and trucks are about 20 percent, and cars are about 20 percent," said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power.

"We're kind of getting to that stasis point, but just industry dynamics alone suggest that it will be several years until we steady out" because the pandemic and inventory shortages disrupted the natural cycle of the U.S. market, he said.

Automakers have several theories to explain why cars have recently bucked their declining trend: from the simple fact that sedans tend to be cheaper than comparably segmented crossovers, to deep-seated generational mores about children not wanting to drive what their parents drove.

"We are seeing something very similar," said Hein Schafer, senior vice president of sales at Volkswagen of America. "I think probably over the last two years, the continuous deterioration of [the] compact and midsize sedan has started to slow down, and it looks like they are now — at least in our predictions in the next short-term future — kind of holding their own. And I think that's encouraging."

Because of the global microchip shortage, VW made a production decision that led to an unexpected lesson about sedan demand. In 2021, VW started selling the Taos, a similarly sized crossover to compliment its popular but more expensive Tiguan, but which was aimed at more budget-conscious buyers. The Taos and Tiguan are produced for North America at the automaker's massive plant in Puebla, Mexico, alongside the Jetta compact sedan, which has a lower starting price than both crossovers.

In response to the chip crisis, the brand sacrificed Jetta production to continue to make the more profitable Taos and Tiguans. The Jetta finished 2022 down 38 percent to 38,260 vehicles, and extended the losses in the first quarter of this year: down 58 percent to just 4,574.

The decision led to 90 percent of VW's 67,853 first-quarter sales in the U.S. going to its crossovers, which are more profitable. But the achievement, said Schafer, wasn't without costs.

"The dealers are really desperately crying out to get Jetta [back] on the showroom floor, despite the fact that we've got a Taos that covers that $25,000 price point," he said. "We still have people coming out of sedans and wanting sedans again. And at some of our stores, when there have been no Jettas available, that customer hasn't bought [a crossover], but has gone off and bought another sedan from another brand."

For customers like those described by Schafer, their choices have shrunk considerably. Not only have automakers culled car nameplates, but customers interested in the segment have had little from which to choose. According to Cox Automotive's latest inventory measurement, the four segments with the tightest days' supply are high-performance, compact, midsize and subcompact cars — all of which had between 29 and 37 days' supply, compared with an industry average of 56 days. The few remaining full-size cars were the exception with a 104-day supply.

Automakers that chose to remain in car segments — primarily Asian and European brands — have cut back their offerings and purposely left white space in their lineups to strengthen what remains.

The Hyundai Elantra and Sonata, the Korean brand's core sedan models, performed well in the first quarter, with sales rising 47 percent and 87 percent, respectively. A brand spokesperson told Automotive News that the car market has stabilized and there are millions of consumers who are still attracted to sedans. The spokesperson added in an email that "increased availability and consumers seeking more attainable new vehicle prices" also drove the sales increases.

At American Honda, meanwhile, a spokesperson speculated that low inventories of its lineup of crossovers could have caused some customers to migrate back to the Civic and Accord.

Toyota continues to remain committed to car segments, even though it axed the subcompact Yaris and large Avalon. But recently, Toyota expanded its compact Corolla nameplate with the GR Corolla hot hatch. It also capitalized on the Corolla's brand equity by including it in the name of its new subcompact crossover, the Corolla Cross, but that has nothing to do with sedans.

Cooper Ericksen, senior vice president of product, battery electric vehicles and mobility planning and strategy for Toyota Motor North America, said there will always be consumers who just prefer sedans. "We can get into the why, but the bottom line is that it's maybe not that important. Why? Because they just feel the way they feel, and so that's a portion of the market that we want to serve."

Ericksen said one trend that is becoming clear in marketing research on sedans is an interesting swing when it comes to buyer ages.

"The reality is that with every generation there comes a different way of looking at the previous generation's products, whether it's sedans, back in the '80s when minivans started coming out, and then SUVs. And if it's mom's car, does that make it cool for the next generation? So, we're seeing a little bit of that — there's actually a much younger customer that is gravitating to sedans."

He also said there are geographic differences to car/light truck preferences, noting, for example, that buyers in California continue to purchase a larger percentages of cars versus light trucks than do those elsewhere in the country.

Ericksen said that as automakers expand their electric vehicle offerings, traditional car designs may even be lined up for a slight renaissance.

"The same reasons why sedans have been successful for 50 years is why they're successful with BEVs: because they're more aerodynamic, they have better fuel economy, they have better range, they're less expensive to manufacture, they're easier to park and get around," he said.

J.D. Power's Jominy agrees — to a point.

"It may get worse for the car for the time being, but for the long term, every automaker is going to have one," because of the fundamental features Ericksen set out and their importance as the industry evolves toward better battery technologies.

"I still think you'll be able to find [a car]. It's just not going to be like we saw before, where you had a Fiesta, a Focus, a Fusion and a Taurus" that allowed Ford to cover all the car segments. "I mean, we're not going back to those days as far as I can see."

Carly Schaffner contributed to this report.